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National and Battleground State Data Paint a Bleak Picture for Trump

Joe Biden Donald Trump

Data point to a very bad November for Trump as Biden persistently leads the president in national head-to-head polls. More disturbing for Trump, the latest polls out of 13 battleground states have Biden beating Trump in 12. Biden is competitive in Texas.

A Monmouth University poll published May 6 has Biden leading Trump nationally by nine points, 50% to 41%. In 85 polls measuring the Biden/Trump contest at the national level and released between April 1 and May 6 by FiveThirtyEight, Biden averaged a 6.4% lead over Trump. In one poll (Change Research released April 9), Trump leads Biden by 2 points. Biden’s reported national lead is highest in the Lord Ashcroft Poll released on April 11.

Two regularly released polls (YouGov and Ipsos) show a consistent Biden lead nationally, but that lead tightens with polls released in May. The Ipsos May 6 release shows Biden’s lead shrinking to one point.

But presidential elections aren’t won nationally, they are won at the state level. Data coming from 13 key battleground states are troublesome for Trump’s November chances.

The most recent presidential poll coming out of Arizona dates back to April 14 and shows Biden with a 9-point lead, 52% to 43%. Colorado‘s most recent presidential poll comes from Keating Research et.al. on May 6 and has Biden leading 17%, 55% to 38%.

Fox News released the most recent presidential poll from Florida on May 23 which has Biden leading by three points, 46% to 43%. Cygnal released the most recent presidential poll out of Georgia on May 1 which has Biden leading by one point, 44% to 43%.

Public Policy Polling has Trump leading Biden by 2% in Iowa with data released May 4, 48% to 46%. Public Policy Polling also released the latest data out of Michigan showing Biden leading by 8%, 50% to 42%.

The most recent data from Minnesota dates back to October 21, 2019 shows Biden leading Trump by 12%, 50% to 38% and was released by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. ALG data released May 6 shows Biden with a 4-point lead in Nevada, 49% to 45%.

Saint Anselm College released New Hampshire presidential data on April 29 showing Biden leading by 8%, 50% to 42%. In North Carolina, Civiqs released data on May 5 showing Biden leading by three points, 49% to 46%.

Baldwin Wallace University et.al. released presidential data on April 27 showing Biden with a small one-point lead in Ohio, 45% to 44%. In Pennsylvania, Harper Polling released data on May 1 showing Biden’s lead at 6%, 49% to 43%.

And in Wisconsin, Hodas & Associates reveals a Biden lead of 5%, 50% to 45% in data released April 24.

And there are some surprising data coming out of Texas. The University of Texas at Tyler shows the presidential contest at a dead heat, 43% to 43% in data released May 2. Public Polling Policy shows a one-point Biden lead in Texas, 47% to 46% in data released April 29. YouGov gives Trump a 5% Texas lead, 49% to 44% in data released April 25.

The president remains underwater in job approval. Since April 1, YouGov reports that Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% with a high of 55% reported on May 4. Over the same period, his approval rating averages 45% with a low of 42% reported on May 7.

Visit FiveThirtyEight Polls for comprehensive election data.

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